So, as you might have heard, Ed Case has officially dropped out from the congressional race in November. KHON2 is running a poll, asking viewers whether or not Case's withdrawal will help Democrats win back the 1st Congressional Seat. You can access the poll here: http://www.khon2.com/default.aspx

These are my thoughts. First, we have to take into account campaign funds. As we have seen, the Case v. Hanabusa race for the special election did nothing but bring shame to democrats. Both candidates drained funds from Democratic special interests, unions, fundraisers, the DNC, and to what end? Charles Djou won the 1st Congressional Special Election, the first Republican to win the seat in 20 years.

With the bitter primary between former Congressman Abercrombie and Mayor Hannemann to be had, even more money will be drained from Democratic funds. That, coupled with another Case v. Hanabusa, would have drowned the Democratic savings account.

Second, we have to look at voters. The way I see it, there are primarily three types of voters: the loyalists, the diehards, and the party-crossers. The loyalists are those who will vote for the better candidate in their specific party, and will always vote for their party. These normally come in the form of individual voters. Now that Case has dropped out, these types of voters, who primarily supported Case, will shift to Hanabusa. The diehards are the ones loyal to one candidate, and that candidate only. These usually come in the form of close relatives, friends, and special interests. They will only support one candidate, and will not take any compromises. Case's diehards, in this election, will probably not vote out of faithfulness. The party-crossers are the most interesting. They are usually individual voters, who either have very moderate viewpoints, or borderline despise a candidate. These former Case supporters, out of hatred for Hanabusa,  will cross party lines to vote for Djou, in order to keep Hanabusa out of the nation's capitol.

Only the loyalists will vote for Hanabusa as a compromise to Case; the other two groups will not. If the ratio of loyalists to party-crossers is significant either way, it could give a boost to either Djou or Hanabusa.

So, will Case's drop-out help Democrats take back the 1st Congressional? Personally, I think that in terms of fiscal situations and voter ratio, it will help Democrats.

Will it nab them the win? I don't think so. I believe that the incumbent, Djou, has enough support to pull off another win.